Why This Topic Landed in Japan

China's Central Military Commission has shrunk from its normal seven members to effectively about two, amid a sweep of purges and investigations of senior officers. China's military pressure is a standing security concern in Japan, and the recurring online "China will collapse" trope gave the discussion a familiar frame.

This time the argument moved from external military pressure to the internal purge — and to how far a shrunken command actually changes the odds of a move on Taiwan — alongside a realist pushback on collapse-cheerleading. That pushback held that a genuine collapse would not be something to celebrate: it would bring civil unrest, a flood of refugees toward Japan and South Korea, and wider economic chaos, and that authoritarian rule may be the main thing holding such a vast state together in the first place.

Key Reaction Themes

  • No brakes, and the risk of an impulsive strike — The most common worry was that, with experienced commanders gone, Xi could move on Taiwan on a whim and no one is left to restrain him. Several drew a parallel to Stalin purging his ablest officers before the German-Soviet war.
  • The PLA as the Party's, and Xi's, army — Many argued the People's Liberation Army exists to protect the Communist Party's and Xi's interests, not to defend the country.
  • A realist check on collapse talk — A strong thread argued against wishful "China will collapse" talk: a collapse would mean civil war and a surge of refugees toward Japan, and authoritarian rule may be the only thing keeping such a huge state unified.
  • Doubt about the collapse trope, and geopolitical second-guessing — Others doubted that anyone takes the collapse videos seriously, or suspected the US of needing China to remain an enemy.

What Japanese Netizens Are Saying

The Top Command Shrinks to "Seven to Effectively Two"

A purge has cut the Central Military Commission from seven members to effectively two, raising questions about Taiwan.

集英社オンライン
集英社オンライン
@shueisha_online
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〈習近平の周りから将軍が消えた〉中国軍“大粛清”で最高指導部「7人→実質2人」…それでも台湾有事が遠のかないワケ「無謀な軍事作戦が行なわれる可能性も」 shueisha.online/articles/-/258…

shueisha.online〈習近平の周りから将軍が消えた〉中国軍“大粛清”で最高指導部「7人→実質2人」…それでも台湾有事が遠のかないワケ「無謀な軍事作戦が行なわれる可能性も」 | 集英社オンライン今年8月28日、中国軍最高幹部の2人が国家中央軍事委員会正式の副主席・委員を免職された。これで、2022年に7人いた中国軍の最高軍事指導部は実質2人に。いったい中国軍で何が起きているのか？ 元防衛省情報分析官で、中国人民解放軍の分析を専門とする上田篤盛氏に聞いた。
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Sources: Yahoo! news, 2ch

Comments:

  • "Xi Jinping doesn't understand the human heart."
  • "Now Xi's got no choice but to attack Taiwan all on his own."
  • "With no one left to stop him, it means Winnie the Pooh can order an invasion of Taiwan on a whim — he can, though whether it'd actually go well is another matter lol."
  • "This is just his last struggle before another Tiananmen, isn't it?"
  • "Today's Chinese military isn't there to defend the country — it's an army that only invades on Xi's orders and protects Xi."
  • "If Xi dies, a power struggle looks likely to spark a civil war."
  • "The People's Liberation Army isn't a military to defend the country — it's the Chinese Communist Party's armed organization, meaning its job is to protect the Party's vested interests."
  • "Without anyone to give the orders, Taiwan is out of the question — is Xi going to do all of it himself?"
  • "Right up to the eve of the German-Soviet war, Stalin kept purging his capable officers. It must just be the nature of dictators."
  • "He's crushed nearly all his political rivals, so the next thing that could threaten his position is the military. With economic-policy failures held against him, it wouldn't be strange for him to be forced out as president. He wants to be Mao — but not the Mao who was removed as head of state after the Great Leap Forward. A frightened Xi Jinping, who doesn't have the power to come back the way Mao did."

A Reality Check on the "China Will Collapse" Trope

Netizens debate the recurring online claim that China is about to fall apart.

Sources: 2ch

Comments:

  • "Every country collapses eventually."
  • "If China's economy has the kind of bubble collapse Japanese people talk about, the scale would be nothing like Japan's own bubble collapse — isn't that terrifying? Civil unrest would be unavoidable, and huge numbers of refugees would pour into Japan and South Korea."
  • "There's no way the crowd that takes those kinds of videos and talking points at face value would think that far ahead."
  • "It's not really that dangerous — Russia is the same."
  • "Couldn't you say China and Russia only hold their vast territory and population together thanks to their authoritarian regimes? If so, a collapse would be the more dangerous outcome."
  • "Anyway, America needs China to stay Japan's enemy, so America stirs China up periodically."
  • "I get that if China turned into a democracy and a bunch of countries like Taiwan appeared on the mainland and formed an EU-style federation with Japan and South Korea, it's America that would be in trouble."
  • "Over the past hundred years or so, the Qing became the Republic of China and then the People's Republic, and it didn't affect Japan all that much."
  • "Unification and collapse are different things. If China collapsed now it would definitely fragment. First Hong Kong, the most recently 'Sinicized,' then Xinjiang and Tibet and so on — and from the standpoint of the old Qing rulers, the current Han-centered order is itself off, so it'd be civil war."
  • "Even when the USSR broke apart, it was just internal fighting and didn't have all that much impact."