China's Threat to Manila, a Defense-Budget Squeeze, and a North Korean Sub

Why This Topic Landed in Japan

Wariness of China and North Korea has been a steady theme in Japan, and on October 16 three concrete events landed on the same day. China's ambassador to the Philippines said, over the South China Sea dispute, that Manila would "easily lose" a fight but that China would not choose force, and that the Philippines should feel "lucky" to have a neighbor like China; Manila pushed back and called it a transparent threat. At the same time, Japan's year-end defense build-up left it caught between Chinese opposition to a larger budget and reported US pressure to raise it. And North Korea announced that on October 14 it had test-fired two strategic cruise missiles underwater from a submarine, the "Kim Gun-ok Hero" — though the launch platform, the performance and the "operational" framing rest on Pyongyang's own account. Together the three read in Japan as a snapshot of a deteriorating security environment.

Key Reaction Themes

• Scorn at China's threat (most common) — Most comments brushed off the ambassador's remark as "childish" bluster, invoking the saying that the weaker the dog barks the loudest, and calling it the audacity of a thief.
• Cool talk about the real military balance — A substantial strand debated actual capabilities: blue-water reach, command of the South China Sea, a possible two-front problem with India, and the US-Philippines alliance.
• Brush-off on the defense budget — On the budget, many said "stop interfering" and "China should cut its own first," while some argued an increase is justified for deterrence and a minority countered that more spending can't win and that normalization would serve Japan better.
• Name-mockery over the North Korean sub — The submarine thread was dominated by wordplay on the vessel's name rather than its military development, with only a few voices raising the actual security implications or chiding the sneering.

What Japanese Netizens Are Saying

China's envoy threatens the Philippines

China's ambassador to the Philippines says Manila would "easily lose" a war and should feel "lucky" to have China as a neighbor.

Sources: 2ch

Comments:

• "Same as ever — what they say is childish."
• "They already hold command of the sea in the South China Sea, though."
• "We'd have been even luckier if China didn't exist."
• "Apparently they're already stronger than the US. In a long war China supposedly has the edge, because the US runs out of ammo."
• "How are they going to win when they can barely get out to sea and fight?"
• "A capable hawk hides its talons; the weaker the dog, the more it barks."
• "While they face east, India comes in from the west…"
• "For China it's less about raw strength and more that they have to watch for internal revolt and a two-front war with neighbors."
• "So it's clear the one who wants a war of aggression is China."
• "The audacity of a thief, lol."
• "An ambassador with no authority to move the military says this and it's allowed? Unless he's reading out a letter signed by Xi Jinping, it's clearly overreach. Today's China can't stop this kind of runaway behavior on the ground. It's happened in Japan too, hasn't it."
• "The Philippines is nominally a US ally too. If the US joins in and gets attacked, Japan enters the war as well under 'survival-threatening situation' rules."
• "It's lame, like a posturing geek."
• "On Taiwan too, back in the Ma Ying-jeou era they smiled and said 'we have no ambitions toward Taiwan, we respect Taiwan' while gutting things behind the scenes — Taiwan could have ended up like Hong Kong."

The US-China squeeze over Japan's defense budget

China opposes a bigger Japanese defense budget while the US presses for an increase, leaving Japan caught in between.

Sources: Yahoo! news, 2ch

Comments:

• "Either way is fine, but can the US and China please sort out their positions between themselves."
• "With a 700-trillion-yen GDP and 9 trillion in defense spending, even the increase is only 1.2% of GDP."
• "Stop interfering in our domestic affairs."
• "Japan: 'China, don't raise your defense budget!' China will naturally listen to this, right?"
• "Those guys are dumb, so when you say that they start going on about 'per-capita this and that.'"
• "Then why are they running intimidation drills around Taiwan? Why are they doing island-landing exercises on the mainland? It's totally obvious, isn't it?"
• "The US just wants to pull its bases out — that's different from what the net-right wishes for."
• "Funny, isn't it. Is there some disadvantage if Japan's defense budget goes up?"
• "Going over 3% is impossible given domestic public opinion."
• "If China hates it, then that's probably the right answer."
• "A great power scared of an island nation, lol."
• "Numbers like 3.5% don't matter in themselves; the aim is deterring a war over Taiwan, so getting complaints from China is just about right."
• "However much you pile onto the defense budget, there are no people, no AI, no technology. Are we going to pay China and beg them not to attack?"
• "How about China takes a look at its own defense budget before talking?"

North Korea's submarine missile test

North Korea says it test-fired two strategic cruise missiles underwater from the submarine "Kim Gun-ok Hero."

Sources: Yahoo! news

Comments:

• "It's a name that looks like it's dodging a banned word."
• "The name's way too cool, lol."
• "That's basically the Neo Armstrong Cyclone Jet Armstrong Cannon — hey, the build quality is high." [Translator's note: a running-gag weapon name from the manga Gintama, cited to mock the sub's over-the-top name.]
• "Sneering at the surface without looking at the substance — you lot really are useless."
• "They're building it with technology handed over from Russia, so Japan's level won't be enough to counter it."
• "They're steadily preparing toward a survivable nuclear strategy. Generally, to reliably prevent the loss of retaliatory capability to a first strike, nuclear weapons are operated dispersed across ballistic missiles, submarines and strategic bombers."